TORONTO _ Here's some simple advice for CFL fans trying to figure out the league's muddled playoff picture heading into the final third of the regular season.
Don't bother.
Seven of the CFL's eight teams remain in serious playoff contention, with six being separated by just five points. What's more, the club not expected to make the post-season _ the Hamilton Tiger-Cats (2-10) _ showed with last weekend's win over Calgary it's more than capable of being a playoff spoiler.
The B.C. Lions (8-4-1) top the ultra-competitive West Division and again have established themselves as the class of the league. Despite injuries to starter Dave Dickenson and backup Buck Pierce, the Lions have shown they can win with No. 3 Jarious Jackson. It was Jackson's 33-yard touchdown pass to Geroy Simon on third down with just 34 seconds remaining that earned B.C. a comeback 37-34 win Saturday over Saskatchewan and a three-point lead over the Roughriders in the standings.
Saskatchewan (7-5) was the CFL's feel-good story at mid-season, a team in contention in the West Division despite an abundance of new faces and a new head coach in Kent Austin. The club's early-season success had many in Regina believing the club would finally host a home playoff game for the first time since '88.
The Riders remain second in the standings one point ahead of Calgary (6-5-1), but have lost three straight. The Stamps' schedule, though, isn't an easy one, either with games against B.C. (two), Winnipeg (two), Saskatchewan and Montreal.
In addition to facing Calgary, Saskatchewan's stretch run includes games against Hamilton (twice), Montreal, Edmonton and Toronto.
Hamilton, though, might just have delivered Regina's long-suffering fans that elusive home playoff contest. Calgary quarterback Henry Burris, who surpassed the 300-yard passing plateau Friday night for the sixth time in seven games but suffered a suspected dislocated left shoulder and is likely out four-to-six weeks. That means former NFL first-round pick Akili Smith, whose interception after Burris's departure clinched the Ticats' win, will move to No. 1 and start next week against B.C.
Then there's fourth-place Edmonton (5-6-1), which is not only just three points out of second in the West, but has a one-point lead over Toronto in the crossover scenario heading into a crucial home-and-home series with the Argos.
However, given Saskatchewan's struggles and Calgary's injury woes, the Eskimos can't yet be counted out of the West playoff picture, either, although Edmonton's schedule calls for games against Toronto (two), B.C. (two) and Saskatchewan before finishing up against Hamilton.
Winnipeg (7-4-1) remains the team to beat in the East Division. The Bombers not only have the CFL's passing leader in Kevin Glenn, but one of the league's best running backs in Charles Roberts and a deep receiving corps with Milt Stegall, Derick Armstrong and Terrence Edwards.
Stegall didn't play in Winnipeg's 31-23 road loss to Toronto on Sunday, and the Bombers could've certainly used him in an otherwise lethargic opening half that resulted in just 78 total offensive yards. Glenn lit it up in the second half with 380 passing yards and two touchdowns but fell just short in comeback bid.
First place in the East is definitely Winnipeg's to lose. But Sunday's loss was further evidence of Winnipeg's kicking woes as veteran Troy Westwood missed two first-half field goals, again creating concern that could come back to haunt the Bombers in the playoffs.
The real fight, though, is for second.
Montreal (6-6) currently holds down second spot, but is just two points ahead of Toronto (5-7), with a crucial home-and-home series between the two looming. The Als also face Saskatchewan, Hamilton, Calgary and Winnipeg down the stretch.
Montreal looked like a solid bet to contend in the East midway through the season. It had won four straight with first-year running back Jarrett Payton in the lineup, but starter Anthony Calvillo went down with a shoulder injury following a 46-14 loss to B.C. on Aug. 31.
After leading the Alouettes to a 32-14 win over the Lions the following week, backup Marcus Brady has lost two straight and now has a bum leg. And as a team, the Als look more like the squad that opened the season by losing three of its first four games.
Yet Calvillo is expected to resume practising at full speed this week and, depending on how he fares, could be back under centre when Montreal visits Saskatchewan on Saturday. The truth is without Calvillo, the Alouettes' playoff plight looks dim.
The Argos enter a crucial four-game stretch that could decide their playoff fate. Toronto will open a home-and-home series with Edmonton at Commonwealth Stadium on Saturday, then set its sights on a two-game set with Montreal.
The Edmonton series is important because Toronto has one less point than the West Division club. If at season's end the Eskimos remain fourth in the West but have more points than the third-place Argos, then Edmonton will cross over and become the East Division's third playoff seed.
A sweep of Edmonton would not only give Toronto three more points than the Eskimos, but also turn up the heat on Montreal heading into its two-game series with the Alouettes in two weeks. The Argos' other remaining games are against Winnipeg and Saskatchewan.
The good news for the Argos is they're getting healthier. Top receiver Arland Bruce III returned Sunday after missing time with a shoulder injury and running mate Tony Miles should be back very soon.
Mathematically, Hamilton remains in contention. But a more likely scenario is the Ticats being the fly in other teams' ointment down the stretch. The hamstring injury new quarterback Casey Printers suffered against Calgary isn't serious, so he should return soon.
But backup Richie Williams served notice Friday against Calgary he's more than capable of leading the offence. Williams replaced Printers late in the first half with Hamilton trailing 17-6 and rallied the Ticats to a 24-20 victory.
And with games remaining against Winnipeg, Montreal, Saskatchewan (two), B.C. and Edmonton, the Ticats are in a glorious position to decide who finishes where.
